NFL Week 5 Resets the Super Bowl Market

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When the season began, the majority of NFL betting was on an AFC team to win the Super Bowl. The Kansas City Chiefs were the favorites to repeat, the Buffalo Bills were third, and the Cincinnati Bengals were fifth. And if you were looking for a trendy pick outside of the top-five, the AFC also had the Ravens, Jets, and Dolphins..

The AFC was where the majority of the talent was and where the best teams in the league resided. The NFC had three teams who could possibly win the Super Bowl, and that was it.

Five weeks makes a big difference.

San Francisco 49ers

When the season began, the San Francisco 49ers were the fourth betting favorite to win Super Bowl LVIII, paying +950, and sitting behind the Chiefs, Bills, and Philadelphia Eagles.

Today, has the 49ers as the favorite to win the Super Bowl, with odds down to +400.

San Francisco is 5-0, and they have been dominating teams on both sides of the ball. Brock Purdy has the highest quarterback rating in the league, Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL in rushing, and at 13.6 points allowed per game, the 49ers have the best scoring defense in the NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs haven’t fallen too far from where they were to begin the season. They are the second betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, with paying +510 for a bet in Kansas City.

The Chiefs are 4-1, and currently they are the top seed in the AFC, based on conference record. But three of their four wins are by just one score, and Patrick Mahomes is averaging just 257.4 yards passing per game. That’s 51 fewer yards per game compared to last season.

It’s nitpicking a little – he’s still seventh in the NFL in passing yards. It’s just that right now, the Chiefs are falling below the bar they’ve set over the last four years.

Philadelphia Eagles

For the second year in a row, the Eagles are 5-0 to begin the season. That is the first time they’ve done that since becoming a franchise in 1933.

The wins may not be dominant this year – they had to go to overtime to beat Washington – but Philadelphia is clearly the best team in the NFC East. The schedule is tough, with the Dolphins in two weeks, foowed by the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and then the Cowboys again. But if Philadelphia can survive that stretch, they can survive another challenging playoff run to the Super Bowl.

After five weeks, the Eagles are paying +750 at to win the Super Bowl.

Buffalo Bills

Right now, the bookmakers and betting public still believe in the Buffalo Bills. has them as the fourth betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, paying +840. But they have now taken two bad losses on the season, and they have lost a pair of their best defensive players.

Two weeks ago, when the Bills had their big win over the Miami Dolphins, cornerback Tre’Davious White was lost for the season with a ruptured achilles. This past Sunday in London, while they were losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars, they lost linebacker Matt Milano for the season with a broken leg and knee injury.

The offense and quarterback Josh Allen should continue to put up points. But the losses on defense are reason for concern.

Miami Dolphins

When the season began, the fifth betting favorite to win the Super Bowl was the Cincinnati Bengals. They are now 2-3, and have fallen to eighth among betting favorites. Replacing them in the top-five is the Miami Dolphins, who have gone from +2500 to win the Super Bowl, to +1000 at

They took a bad loss in Buffalo, and rookie running back sensation De’Von Achane is going to miss at least the next four weeks with a knee injury. But this offense is the best we’ve ever seen through five weeks, setting the five-week records for total yards and yards per play.

Other Fallers and Risers

The Cowboys looked thoroughly overmatched by the 49ers, and they have dropped to +1200 to win the Super Bowl. When the season began, they were at +1000.

Experts have been high on the Detroit Lions since early in the off-season. But we’re now seeing the money pour in, backing up that optimism. The Lions were paying +3500 to begin the season, but now has them at +1400.

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