The Best Super Bowl Quarterback Prop Bets
In the history of the Super Bowl, there has never been a bigger draft disparity among starting quarterbacks than what we are going to see on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes was selected by the Kansas City Chiefs with the 10th overall pick in 2017. Five years and 252 picks later, Brock Purdy was drafted by the San Francisco 49ers.
We have had undrafted Super Bowl starting quarterbacks – Jake Delhomme and Kurt Warner – but no one who was drafted was selected later than Purdy, the 262nd pick in 2022.
Their journeys to Super Bowl Sunday couldn’t be more different. Mahomes has been the face of the league since he won his first MVP in 2018 with 5,000 passing yards and 50 touchdowns. Since then, he has won two Super Bowls, two Super Bowl MVPs, and a second league MVP award. His 10-year, $450 million contract is the richest in the league.
Brock Purdy began his first training camp in San Francisco as QB4. He worked his way up to third string by the time the 2022 season began. But he only became the starter because of injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo. In Purdy’s two NFL seasons, he has made a total of $1.9 million.
Their styles are different, their accolades are different, and their profiles in professional sports couldn’t be more different. But both starting quarterbacks present excellent opportunities for Super Bowl prop bets.
Best Brock Purdy Prop Bets
One area where Mahomes has a big advantage over Purdy is play in inclement weather. Purdy’s worst games this season have come in cold and rain. With the Super Bowl indoors in air-conditioned comfort, that’s not an issue.
NFL online sportsbooks are paying +110 if Purdy goes the entire game without an interception – something he has done 11 times (including playoffs) this season. Those are good odds coming in the controlled environment of Allegiant Stadium.
In the NFC Championship Game against the Detroit Lions, Purdy threw for 267 yards and ran for 48. He also had a game in which he ran for 57 yards. The Chiefs have been susceptible to running quarterbacks this season, with eight different QBs running for 30 or more yards.
If you are watching the game from one of Nevada’s retail sportsbooks, the line on Purdy’s rush yards is 12.5. If Purdy goes over 25 yards rushing, the payout is +295.
If Purdy rushes for at least 25 yards, scores a touchdown, and the 49ers win, the payout is +3300.
Purdy is the second betting favorite to win the MVP award at +225.
Best Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets
The leading candidate to be named the Super Bowl MVP is Patrick Mahomes at +125. He’s an obvious choice as a two-time winner of the award. He’s also favored over Brock Purdy, even though the 49ers are 2.5-point favorites (BetUS.com), because there are more possible MVP candidates for the Niners.
Mahomes is also a frequent runner of the football, and 11 times this season he ran at least five times in a game. His over/under on combined passing and rushing yards is 292.5, and when the Chiefs played the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV, he finished with 315 total yards. Last year in Super Bowl LVII, he finished with 226 yards.
Nevada online sportsbooks also think that Mahomes is likely to be the first to hit certain benchmarks on Super Bowl Sunday. He’s -125 to throw the first touchdown of the game. The payout is -120 on Mahomes to reach 100 yards passing first. He’s -170 to reach 200 yards first. He’s -260 to have the most passing attempts in the game, and -265 to have the most completion.
If Mahomes has a huge game and sets some Super Bowl records this weekend, it will be a big payday for bettors. If Mahomes breaks Tom Brady’s record of 505 yards passing, it pays +8000. If he breaks Steve Young’s record of six touchdown passes in a Super Bowl, it pays +5000.