2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

Spread the Word:

We have reached the 10-tournament pole for the PGA Tour season, and in the first nine tournaments, it has been good to be a longshot.

Last week at the Cognizant Classic, winner Austin Eckroat was paying as much as +10000. Chris Kirk won The Sentry, paying +15000. Grayson Murray won the Sony Open at +40000. This week, Murray is paying +60000 at BetUS.com, so just put your money on him again and watch the cash roll in.

But probably not for this tournament. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is just that, an invitational. And a star-studded field gets an invite to Bay Hill. This is one of the PGA’s Signature Events, and a limited field of 69 golfers is in Orlando this weekend. Murray’s win in Hawaii earned enough FedEx Cup points to make the field. But there are a host of very good golfers ahead of him on the odds board.

Favorites to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational

Scottie Scheffler (+650)

Rory McIlroy (+850)

Viktor Hovland (+1600)

Xander Schauffele (+1800)

Patrick Cantlay (+1800)

Ludvig Aberg (+1800)

Jordan Spieth (+2200)

Collin Morikawa (+2200)

Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)

Sam Burns (+2500)

Justin Thomas (+2500)

Cameron Young (+2500)

Scottie Scheffler doesn’t have a win yet this season, but he has four top-10 finishes in five tournaments, including three tournaments in a row – T6 at Pebble Beach, T3 in Phoenix, and T10 at the Genesis Open at Riviera. Bovada.lv has him as the favorite heading into Bay Hill, where he won in 2022. Last year, Scheffler finished fourth at this tournament.

Last month, Rory McIlroy won the ninth edition of the Match. But so far on Tour this season, he has yet to break into the top 20. Last weekend at the Cognizant Classic, he finished T21. McIlroy was the runner-up at Bay HIll last year, which has him as the runner-up pre-tournament betting favorite.

Viktor Hovland has two top-10 finishes at Bay Hill, including a runner-up in 2022. Xander Schauffele has four top-10 finishes this season, including a T4 at Riviera his last time out. And Cameron Young was T4 last week at the Cognizant Classic and T8 at the Phoenix Open.

Longshots Worth a Look

There’s a good chance you don’t know Kurt Kitayama, or remember him and his victory here last year. If you bet on him then, you definitely remember him. He paid +20000, and he is paying +8000 this week at BetUS.com. He finished T8 a month ago at the Phoenix Open.

Keegan Bradley is paying +5500 this weekend, but he is the exact kind of ball striker who does well at Bay Hill. In his early days on this course (2013-2014), he finished third and second. More recently (2021-2023), he finished 10th, 11th, and 10th. Last year’s 10th-place finish won him $485,000.

Matthieu Pavon is +7500 to win the event, +1400 to finish top-five, and +550 to finish in the top-10. The reason these are good value numbers is because Pavon is second on Tour in shots gained, second in putting, and 13th in bogey avoidance. Pavon was the wire-to-wire at Torrey Pines in January, and he followed that up with a third-place finish at Pebble Beach.

This is Pavon’s first tournament at Bay Hill.

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