Men’s NCAA Division I Basketball Tournament Betting Preview

Article ByKyle Garlett

March 18, 2024

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Posted in: US Sports Betting News, US Gambling News

After a great week of conference tournament action, and a final goodbye to the Pac-12 conference, the Men’s NCAA Tournament field is set. On Tuesday, the first of 67 games tips off.

First Four

On Tuesday and Wednesday, we have the First Four, as eight teams compete in four games for the right to play in the final field of 64 teams.

The first game on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio, is between Wagner and Howard. The winner will be the 16th seed in the West Region and play No. 1 seed North Carolina on Thursday. Wagner is in the tournament for the first time in 21 years, while Howard was a 16-seed last year and lost to Kansas.

The second game Tuesday night is for the 10th seed in the Midwest, as Virginia takes on Colorado State. BetUS.com has the Rams of CSU two-point favorites to advance to the first round on Thursday and play the 7th-seeded Texas Longhorns.

Wednesday’s games feature two other similar battles – Grambling and Montana State play as 16-seeds, with the winner playing the No. 1 seed in the Midwest, Purdue. Colorado and Boise State are 10-seeds, and the winner there will play No. 7 Florida in the South. Grambling is in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since moving to Division I. The Bobcats of Montana State are in the Big Dance for the third straight year.

Final Four Betting Odds

Purdue is the top seed in the Midwest, and college basketball online sportsbooks have the Boilermakers as the heavy favorite to win the region. They are paying +165, while No. 2 seed Tennessee is at +350. The Creighton Blue Jays are the No. 3 seed, and they are +400 to make the Final Four. Kansas is the four-seed and Gonzaga is the five, but it is the Bulldogs who have the fourth-shortest odds in the region at +700.

North Carolina is the top seed in the West Region. However, the newly opened online sportsbooks in the Tar Heel State do not have them as the favorites to advance to the Final Four. UNC is second at +230, and Arizona is first at +190. The Sweet 16 and Elite 8 matchups for the West Region take place at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

Baylor is the third-seed and pays +700. Alabama is No. 4 and paying +900 to make a Final Four run.

The defending champion Connecticut Huskies are the top seed in the East Region, and they are big favorites to win it, paying +105. Auburn is the No. 4 seed, and their odds for the Final Four are +380. Iowa State is the two seed, but Iowa retail sportsbooks have them as the third-most likely team to advance. A Final Four bet on the Cyclones pays +400. Illinois, the three seed, is +750.

To no one’s surprise, the Houston Cougars were given the top seed in the South, and they are favorites to win the region at +140. Duke is next, with No. 2 seed Marquette trailing them. Wisconsin retail sportsbooks have the Golden Eagles at +550 and the Blue Devils at +450, despite Duke being just the fourth seed. Kentucky is the No. 3 seed and they are paying +700.

Five versus Twelve Upset

When you fill out your bracket this week, you do have to pick at least one No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5 seed. Otherwise your bracket is incomplete. Or at least ignoring the history of this matchup.

The No. 12 seed is 53-99 all-time in the first round, which is a winning percentage of .349, and at least one 12-seed has won in 17 of the last 22 tournaments.

Bovada.lv provides the odds for the four matchups this year:

No. 12 McNeese State vs. No. 5 Gonzaga (-6.5)

No. 12 UAB vs. No. 5 San Diego State (-6.5)

No. 12 Grand Canyon vs. No. St. Mary’s (-5)

No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Wisconsin (-4.5)

Along with the bookmakers rating James Madison with the best chance for the upset, so do the numbers. JMU is one of just four teams this year to win 30 games – they finished the season 31-3. They also head into the first round matchup with the Badgers on a 13-game win streak.