2024 Mexico Open Betting Preview

Article ByKyle Garlett

February 21, 2024

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Posted in: US Sports Betting News, US Gambling News

Last weekend at the Genesis Invitational, golf fans and golf bettors were treated to a record-breaking comeback. Hideki Matsuyama began Sunday’s final round six strokes off the lead, but closed out his tournament with a 9-under 62, the lowest final round for a winner at Riviera. He also set the record for most PGA Tour wins by an Asian-born player with nine.

With the West Coast Swing of the PGA Tour now over, Matsuyama and most of the top golfers are taking the week off as the Tour heads south for the Mexico Open. That leaves a field light on big names, but heavy on potential longshots.

Favorites to Win 2024 Mexico Open

Tony Finau (+850)

Nicolai Hojgaard (+1400)

Stephan Jaeger (+2200)

Keith Mitchell (+2500)

Taylor Pendrith (+2500)

Thorbjorn Olesen (+2500)

Thomas Detry (+3000)

Emiliano Grillo (+3000)

Ryan Fox (+3500)

Patrick Rodgers (+3500)

Erik Van Rooyen (+3500)

Davis Thompson (+3500)

Tony Finau is the headliner after winning this event last year on this same Vidanta Vallarta course. In 2023, he paid +800 as the second betting favorite to Jon Rahm. Now he is the betting favorite at all golf online sportsbooks, with Rahm skipping the event a year after finishing as the runner-up.

There is a good chance that everyone betting the Mexico Open this weekend has only heard of Finau, so he is expected to get the majority of the action on name recognition alone.

That means there are great opportunities for value bets behind Finau. Nicolai Hojgaard won the DP World Tour Championship in November, and he was the runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in January. Last year was his first appearance at the Mexico Open, and he finished 33rd.

Stephan Jaeger should have won at Torrey Pines a month ago. He struggled to even par in the final round, and lost the tournament by just two shots. He played this event in 2022 and 2023, finishing in the top 20 both times.

Taylor Pendrith finished in the top 10 at the Sony Open in Hawaii and the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, and last year at the Mexico Open he finished T30. He has never won the PGA Tour in the 10 years that he’s been a pro.

Keith Mitchell took last week off, but his 2024 has been excellent so far. He was tied for ninth at The American Express at La Quinta and T17 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. BetUS.com has the first-time Mexico Open participant at +2500 to win.

Potential Longshots

Cameran Champ is paying +4000 at Xbet.ag, but he crushes his drives, and the course at the Mexico Open favors long hitters. He has a low floor, which is why he pays out +4000 to win, but he also has a very high ceiling. He’s missed the cut in all four tournaments he’s played in 2024. But in the two times he’s played at this tournament, he’s finished T6 and T8.

At BetUS.com, you can get Brandon Wu at +4500, and his recent form in Mexico also makes this a huge value bet. He’s never won on the Tour, and he did just miss the cut at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. But at the Mexico Open, he finished tied for second with Finau in 2022, and last year he finished third behind Finau and Rahm.

Outside of Finau, Wu is the most consistent golfer in the field on this course.