NFL Week 4 Betting Guide
The NFL is a week-to-week league, and if you regularly bet on the NFL, you know this better than most. The Dallas Cowboys were unstoppable, until they were stopped by the previously winless Arizona Cardinals. The Baltimore Ravens were 2-0 and were coming off a big win over the Cincinnati Bengals. But the Indianapolis Colts, with their backup quarterback, knocked them off in Baltimore.
It’s a week-to-week league, and here is our betting guide for Week 4.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost two straight games at home, so going to their home away from home, London, England, may be just what the Jags need.
The favorite in the AFC South – BetUS.com has them at +130 – are not looking like the team that ended last year with a trip to the Divisional Round. Trevor Lawrence looks average, and the Jaguars offense isn’t finishing. When in the red zone, they rank 21st in scoring percentage.
This is the first of two consecutive games in London, where Jacksonville has played a total of 10 times, going 4-6. They are the home team this week, and then they will stay across the Atlantic for the week, when they will be the away team.
Atlanta was in London just two years ago – a 27-20 win over the New York Jets – so they do have recent experience managing the time change and the long travel, which does mute the advantage for the Jaguars. But Jacksonville is also the better team, and at some point, we’ll likely see Lawrence looking like Lawrence. This is as good a week as any for that to happen.
Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills
In a week-to-week league, you can set records in a 50-point win over a team with a pretty good defense, as the Miami Dolphins did to the Denver Broncos, and be underdogs seven days later.
It’s true that Miami doesn’t have the greatest history in Buffalo. They’ve lost seven straight when traveling to Western New York. But when the Dolphins upset the Bills in the playoffs last January, it was with Skylar Thompson at quarterback. Not only is Tua Tagovailoa healthy for this meeting, he is channeling the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. He has an NFL-high eight touchdowns, a 71% completion percentage, and his EPA per play (expected points added) is 61% higher than anyone else.
Buffalo has rebounded from a tough Week 1 loss at the New York Jets, but the closest thing we’ve seen to a video game offense is getting points. BetUS.com has the Bills favored by 2.5-points, which makes a bet on Miami extremely attractive.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)
In 1996, owner Art Modell “stole” the Browns from Cleveland. There is no other word for it if you are a Browns fan. And even though three years after Modell created the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland was given its football team back via league expansion, the hatred for the Ravens continues to burn in Cleveland, brighter than the time the Cuyahoga River caught on fire.
This is a game the Browns want more than any other on their schedule, and finally they have a team that can get it done with some consistency. The number-one scoring defense in the NFL, giving up just 10.7 points per game, is the Browns. That is eight fewer points than the Ravens are allowing as the eighth-best defense.
BetUS.com has the over/under on this game set at 41, and the Browns are three-point favorites as the home team.
Cleveland is dealing with the aftermath of the Nick Chubb injury, and last week they were not able to run the ball. But Baltimore has suffered injuries along the offensive line, at running back, and in the defensive secondary. Short-handed, they will find the going tough in Cleveland on Sunday.
Other Bets to Consider
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is making his first start in New York, while Zach Wilson is making too many starts in New York, according to all Jets fans. Kansas City is favored by 10 a week after beating the Chicago Bears by 31.
The Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders makes you think of offense. But three of the last four games has gone under the the totals line, which is at 47.5 for this Sunday’s game at SoFi Stadium. Also worth noting is that each team went under in Week 3.
The Arizona Cardinals are 3-0 against the spread this season. But for the second week in a row, they are the biggest underdog on the schedule, getting 14 points at the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are the best team in the NFC, but Arizona isn’t the doormat that the betting public continues to think they are.