NFL Week 5 Betting Guide
Only the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles remain unbeaten through four weeks. When it comes to betting on the NFL, the only undefeated team is the Los Angeles Rams. Against the spread, the Rams are 3-0-1, with that one tie coming in their three-point loss at Cincinnati.
There are six teams right now that are winless against the point spread, with the New York Giants being the worst of the bunch, losing to the spread by 16.3 points per game.
This Sunday, the Giants are at the Miami Dolphins, and that is where we begin our Week 5 betting guide.
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-7 First Half)
Through four games the Giants have been outscored in the first half, 77-9. For the Dolphins, 86 of their 150 points have come in the first half. The bookmakers at BetUS.com have the Dolphins as seven-point favorites in the first half, and you should take it.
Even during last week’s loss to the Buffalo Bills, the Dolphins scored a pair of touchdowns in the first half. New York hasn’t scored a first half touchdown in any game this season, and they are the only team in the NFL with that distinction.
For the game, the spread is 11.5 points, and that is also an attractive bet to make against the biggest disappointment of the 2023 season.
Houston Texans (+105) at Atlanta Falcons
You could bet the point spread on the Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (BetUS.com is giving Houston 1.5 points), but that only pays -110. The Texans are playing impressive football, the Falcons are the weakest 2-2 team in the league, and going with the Texans on the moneyline pays a much better +105.
It’s a tale of two quarterbacks, and the way these two teams went about building their rosters. The Falcons decided that putting good players around a mediocre quarterback was the way to go, hoping the team would elevate his play. Houston spent their top draft capital on a franchise quarterback, hoping his play would elevate the team.
Texans Rookie C.J. Stroud has been great, Falcons second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder has struggled, and these two offenses are going in opposite directions.
Detroit Lions (-10) at Carolina Panthers
In 2021, the first season the Detroit Lions were coached by Dan Campbell, they were double-digit underdogs five times. They were not favorites in a single game. Things were better in 2022, and the betting public responded, making them favorites in six of their 17 games. Now the Lions are the favorites for the fourth time in five games, and for the first time since a 2017 game against the Cleveland Browns, the Lions are favored by double-digits.
A big part of this spread can be attributed to the winless Carolina Panthers, who are also winless against the spread. But Detroit is for real, and considering the state of these two teams, at -10 points they are still good value.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
The game of the week is in Santa Clara, where the Dallas Cowboys play the San Francisco 49ers. Dallas has a blemish, with their loss at Arizona. They also have a big hole on defense, with the loss of cornerback Trevon Diggs to a torn ACL. But they are coming off a 38-3 demolition of the New England Patriots, and they head to the West Coast on a roll.
The 49ers have been the best and most consistent team in the NFL through four games. They are 4-0, and have won those games by a combined 67 points. But when the Cowboys win, they win even bigger. Their three wins are by a combined 95 points.
It comes down to weapons and home field. As good as the Cowboys defense is, there simply aren’t enough good defenders to cover all of the weapons that the 49ers have. Running back Christian McCaffrey is the betting favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year (BetUS.com has him at +200), and Brandon Ayiuk leads all wide receivers in efficiency, gaining 4.9 yards per route run.
To put that in perspective, that is more than what Randy Moss averaged in his record-setting season in 2007.
The 49ers are just too much for the Cowboys at home. San Francisco knocked off the Cowboys in the playoffs last year at Levi’s Stadium, and they will do it again (and cover) this year.