NFL Week 6 Betting Guide

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There are no sure things when it comes to NFL betting. Of the last 15 teams to win the Super Bowl, only two of them were the preseason favorite to do so. Last year’s favorite was the Buffalo Bills, and they didn’t make it past the Divisional round of the playoffs.

Last year’s winner was the Kansas City Chiefs. But if you bet on them to cover the spread during their run to the Lombardi Trophy, they only won seven of 17 regular season games, and two of three in the postseason.  

So keeping in mind that there are no sure things in the NFL, let’s look ahead to the best bets of Week 6.

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)

There are no sure things, but there are close to sure things, and that is how we describe the Miami Dolphins after five games. They are 4-1 straight up, and 4-1 against the spread, beating the spread by an average of 17 points per win.

Miami just beat a big 12.5-point spread last week against the New York Giants, and this week, has the spread at -13.5 for their home game against the Carolina Panthers. And most relevant to this matchup is that the Panthers are 0-4-1 against the point spread, and are coming off an 18-point loss at Detroit.

Betting on the best offense in football to continue to roll is a solid way to go this Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Cleveland Browns

This point spread first opened at -5, but now has it up to seven points on the uncertain health of Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson. If Watson can’t go, and it’s looking less likely that he can, P.J. Walker will get the start.

The Browns have a really good defense, and they will be able to slow the impressive offense of the San Francisco 49ers. But with Walker under center, this Browns offense will struggle to move the ball. It’s been a slog even with Watson.

Look for the 49ers to cover the spread, and if you are looking for a good alternate wager on this game, is paying -125 for the Browns to finish the game with less than 15 points.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Something has to give when the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers play on Sunday. The Lions are 4-1 against the point spread this season, and they sit in first place in the NFC North. The Buccaneers are 3-1 against the point spread, and they sit in first place in the NFC South.

Detroit has moved up the Super Bowl odds board since the season began, and now has them at +1550 to win their first Lombardi Trophy. Before the season, they were +2500. There is far less belief in Tampa Bay. They are currently paying +5000 to win the Super Bowl, giving them longer odds than 14 other teams.

For this game, you should also have a greater belief in the Lions. Detroit has beaten the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons, two teams with winning records. And their wins over the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers are by a combined 32 points.

Tampa Bay is a good story, and they will remain that way, even after losing at home this weekend.

Dallas Cowboys (-2) at Los Angeles Chargers

The last time the Dallas Cowboys lost two straight games was Thanksgiving Day in 2021. In the nearly two years since then, Dallas has lost a total of nine games, but each of those losses was followed by a win.

The Cowboys rebound from bad performances, as they did this year when they lost to the Arizona Cardinals, 28-16, and then hammered the New England Patriots the next week, 38-3. They are coming off a bad game at the 49ers. But this is the Los Angeles Chargers, a team not nearly as reliable.

The Chargers are short-handed at wide receiver, they just gave up on cornerback J.C. Jackson, and SoFi Stadium is sure to be filled with thousands of traveling Cowboys fans. has Dallas as two-point favorites, and that is a good bet.

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