UFC 299 Betting Preview

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Sean O’Malley leads UFC 299 this Saturday in Miami, as he makes the first defense of his UFC bantamweight belt. He faces Marlon Vera in the main event in what is actually a rematch from a fight three and a half years ago, won then by Vera.

A lot has since changed, including the championship victory for O’Malley and these two becoming headliners for a talent-rich fight card.

Sean O’Malley (-265) vs. Marlon Vera (+215)

Marlon Vera is a slow starter, meaning that by the time he gets his bearings on offense, he’s already taken a lot of punishment. That hurts him in most fights, and it will definitely hurt him in a fight against the current champion.

Since Sean O’Malley lost to Vera in August, 2020, He’s won five straight fights, and only one of the five has gone the distance. The over/under on rounds at BetUS.com is 4.5, and even though O’Malley tends to finish fights earlier than that, Vera is a tough brawler who should stay upright.

Dustin Poirier (+175) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (-215)

Dustin Poirier is a former interim lightweight champion, and he gets back in the octagon for the first time in eight months against Benoit Saint Denis. Poirier beat Conor McGregor twice in-a-row, but he took a submission loss after that to Charles Oliviera, and most recently he was KO’d by Justin Gaethje.

Saint Denis is exactly the kind of fighter that gives Poirier problems. He’s one of the best grapplers in the division, and he’s tough enough to withstand a lot of punishment. Saint Denis comes into this match on a five-bout win streak, and he is the betting favorite at Bovada.lv to make it six straight wins.

Kevin Holland (-130) vs. Michael Page (+110)

One of the most evenly matched fights of the night is the welterweight clash between Kevin Holland and Michael Page. Page is a world championship mixed martial artist, and he’s also been a kickboxer and a boxer. Now, he makes his UFC debut to great anticipation.

Holland lost his last time out in September. But before that, he beat Michael Chiesa by submission and Santiago Ponzinibbio by knockout. Now, as the favorite on Xbet.ag, he looks to spoil the debut of one of the better strikers he’s faced.

Gilbert Burns (+140)  vs. Jack Della Maddalena (-170)

This is big step up in competition for Jack Della Maddalena, which makes it interesting that he comes into the night on BetUS.com as the favorite. He escaped his last fight with a split decision, and with Gilbert Burns preferring to grapple with his opponent, the superior boxing skills of Della Maddalena will be less effective.

Burns has won 22 of 28 matches, and while it would be a slight upset if he were to win on Saturday, it wouldn’t be a big surprise.

Petr Yan (-140) vs. Song Yadong (+115)

Don’t read too much into Petr Yan’s recent fight history. Yes, he comes into this fight having lost five straight. But those were against very good fighters, and among those losses was a disqualification and two split decisions. Yan may not be an elite fighter ready to fight Sean O’Malley for the bantamweight title, but he is still dangerous in this division.

For Song Yadong, it’s a mixed bag. His wins over Chris Gutierrez and Rocky Simon are solid, but his losses to Cory Sandhagen and Kyler Phillips are head-scratchers. He is the underdog at Bovada.lv for a good reason.

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